Friday, 3 August 2012

Gold is ripe for the outbreak

The gold price has overcome the recent small dizzy spell and the level of $ 1,600 quickly recaptured. Now shake the downward trend, a breakout would probably take a hefty price to push themselves.

At first glance this may seem surprising, because the dollar is currently very strong and the recession in Europe provides pressure on inflation - both are really bad for the price of gold .

But the investor the right to counter the potential for central banks have in mind. In particular, the ECB knows that Italy and Spain, no further worsening of the crisis can take longer. If both countries at the same time be ripe for the European rescue package, this would be overburdened. Therefore, the ECB - at least the most recent statements are to be interpreted - intervene on short or long, no matter what the cost.

If let go, but the central banks all the rules in order to extricate the U.S. from their financial distress, then it is not a commitment to consult with gold badly.

Climate manipulation would have significant adverse effects

The technical human intervention in the climate system would have serious consequences
That would be great, if the climate will fail politically, and finally, the Earth is heating up, no brakes, we solve the problem simply technical. "Geo engineering" refers to a technical intervention in the climate system - for example, when particles in the air blow in order to reduce the sunlight. This would have serious consequences, however, as a European research team has now been found.

Geo-engineering would be Europe and other regions of the earth will bring more droughts.

Huge mirrors absorb light

Another option in addition to the enrichment of the atmosphere with particulate matter would be to post huge mirrors in Earth orbit. As a result of the measures, the results of the research, although the temperatures would drop back to normal - but at the same time would significantly decrease the rainfall on Earth.

That would mean that in Europe and North America about 15 percent drier than would be before the start of human-induced climate change. Will in the Amazon rain as much as 20 percent, the researchers report in the journal "Earth System Dynamics".

Remove greenhouse gases

About geo-engineering should either remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or the solar radiation is reduced to the surface. Both should help to slow down climate change and halt global warming.

"Such measures have been proposed as a temporary solution for the case that climate change efforts fail or fail, the consequences of global warming more severe than expected". But the side effects of such interventions in the global climate system have been explored only in part.

Climate would be different

"The main message of our experiment is that the generated by geo-engineering climate is different than any pre-existing natural". One could, the climate such measures do not simply turn back to a previous state.

Even if the temperature gets back to lower levels, there are crucial differences. "Geo-engineering can not therefore be considered a substitute for a climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions," the researchers conclude.

Four climate models

The scientists studied using four climate models, such as the Earth's climate responds to measures to reduce the sunlight. In their scenario, scientists believe that the atmosphere is four times as much carbon dioxide (CO2) still contains the beginning of industrialization - then there were around 280 ppm (parts per million, parts per million).

"Such a quadruple is at the upper end of the forecast breadth, but is still within the range of what would be the end of the 21st century possible," says Max Planck meteorologist Schmidt. To simulate a geo-engineering measure, the researchers then lowered the sunlight in their models to such an extent that the extra CO2 caused by the greenhouse effect has been compensated.

Much less precipitation

The outcome measure, the researchers compared the simulated climate of the earth before the Industrial Revolution. In all four models had manipulated the climate was drier than in the same scenario, the researchers report. The rainfall amounts were lower by an average of 4.8 percent worldwide.

Particularly strongly decreased while the rainfall over North America, the northern part of Eurasia and South America. In the Amazon, it was dry as much as 20 percent. The average global temperature was, however, similar as in the comparative scenario, however, cooled the tropics are somewhat stronger than the polar regions.

Thursday, 2 August 2012

Killer germs spread in the Baltic Sea

Due to the climate change propagate disease-causing bacteria in the Baltic Sea . Already infected with warm summers and more people with Vibrio vulnificus, a pathogen of wound infections, diarrhoea and blood poisoning, reports an international team of researchers in the journal "Nature Climate Change." Even the closely related cholera pathogen Vibrio cholerae is on the rise. Cause of the spread of the bacteria is the sea water becoming warmer.

For every degree that warm it in the Baltic Sea in the future, will increase the number of cases nearly doubled. Affected by this increase in risk of infection are especially densely populated central and southern coasts of the Baltic Sea, the scientists warn. Apart from Denmark and southern Sweden is offered, including Germany and Poland.

Life-threatening fever and blood poisoning

"This is one of the first evidence that climate change can penetrate Vibrio pathogens in temperate regions," Craig Baker-Austin signed by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science in Weymouth and his British colleagues. This shows that the man-made warming begin to change the distribution of infectious diseases.

In addition to the cholera pathogen Vibrio cholerae in warm sea water is found mainly the bacterium Vibrio vulnificus. It causes diarrhea in healthy people, vomiting and stomachache. Get it on wounds or the bloodstream, the immune system of patients weakened, it can also trigger life-threatening fever and blood poisoning.

Baltic Sea heats up in record time

The bacteria of the Vibrio group usually prefer water of at least 15 degrees Celsius and low salinities. For a long time it was too cold in many parts of the Baltic Sea, so that the pathogens could not survive in the long run. Due to climate change, this has changed. "Between 1982 and 2007, water temperatures in the Baltic Sea has risen by 1.35 degrees Celsius - that's seven times more than the global average," say the researchers. The Baltic Sea is thus the fastest warming marine ecosystem in general.

The warmer water has the expectant Baltic pathogens better and better living conditions. They can multiply quickly, and their pathogenic effect on the increase, as the researchers report. During the extremely hot summer of 1994, 2003 and 2006 it was on the Baltic coast already been numerous reports of infected wounds and possibly even cases of cholera. In 2006 alone, 67 people infected with bathing or water sports with Vibrio pathogens, some died.

30 million people are directly threatened

By the year 2050 will increase the number of Vibrio infections clearly if the warming of the Baltic Sea would progress further, the researchers say. Each degree water temperature increases the more infections the number of 1.93-fold. Disease cases are then no longer be expected only in extremely hot summers. In addition, the risk area will continue to spread northward. Then could also metropolitan areas such as Stockholm and St. Petersburg may be jeopardized. "More than 30 million people live less than 50 kilometres from the Baltic Sea,". These people carry an increasing risk of becoming infected through open wounds, contaminated seafood, but also swallowed water with the vibrio bacteria.

For their study, the researchers analyzed the recent cases of infection by water-living bacteria in the Baltic region. On the basis of current climate predictions, they also determined, as is the risk of infection to develop by 2050.

Rivers rinse more water into the Arctic sea

The drainage of the Great Russian Rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena has increased as a result of global warming. The annual amount that pours into the Arctic Ocean lies, today, with about 1700 cubic kilometres per year higher by about ten percent more than 60 years ago.

"It does not take too dramatic, but it is a long-term trend exists,". The results are in the journal "Nature Climate Change" published.

Consequence of the air heating

The research had shown a correlation between the increase of the water in the rivers and the large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, said a professor of physical oceanography. One factor is the heating of the air. This could carry more water and lead to greater amounts of precipitation.

Also playing the past few years observed shift of the Iceland-lows to the east a role. In addition, more frequent in Europe will be the dominant zone flow replaced (along the latitude) by a meridional flow (along the longitudes). "That means that more moisture is transported into the influence of these rivers,".

The results fit well with the data according to the current knowledge of climate change. The trend towards greater freshwater runoff in the investigated area is expected to continue with the progress of global warming continues.

In the long term impact on European climate

The current development is uncertain, however, there are enormous fluctuations from year to year. The previous increase in the outflow had no greater impact on the Arctic Ocean. Basically, could have very large amounts of fresh water, but the influence on North Atlantic circulation, which influences the climate in Europe significantly.

The waning confidence in capitalism


Care around the globe, citizens of the state are its economy , says a new global survey of the prestigious Pew Research Centre in Washington. Of 26,000 respondents in 21 states are only about one in four (27 percent), with the economy Slagelse to be satisfied in his homeland.

Only four nations are of shear, especially China (83 percent satisfied) and Germany (73). Also in Brazil (65 percent) and Turkey (57) Optimism prevails.

Crisis of capitalism model

Compared to a similar Pew survey in 2008 - ie before the onset of the global financial crisis - the loss of confidence is striking. This also leads to a crisis of capitalism model. Eleven of the 21 countries surveyed believe at most half of the respondents, free market economy would lead to greater general prosperity.

Is particularly noticeable loss of confidence in nations that are of the euro crisis severely affected - such as Italy (-23 percent) and Spain (minus 20). There is also support for the proposition could be achieved through hard work, more wealth has fallen significantly.

Pessimism in the U.S., Europe and Japan

Thus, a sharp contrast between the results of the more optimistic mood in emerging countries like China, Brazil, India and Turkey - and a pessimistic attitude in the U.S., Europe or Japan. Less than a third of Americans are to give their economies if it were currently well. In Europe this figure is on average only 16 percent - in Japan, it has even fallen to seven percent.

Only about one in ten Europeans and Japanese have also believe that his descendants would be easy to achieve greater prosperity and better earnings. By comparison, 57 percent of Chinese are convinced that their children will succeed in social advancement without problems.

Little faith in governments

Frustrated citizens around the world lose faith in the crisis to their governments: In 16 of the 21 participating States at the Pew study makes the majority of the respondents their politicians largely responsible for the current economic malaise.

NGOs are regarded by Russia as spies

Who in Russia for political work receives money from Germany and other countries, must now be officially recognized as a "foreign agent". Despite all the criticism from abroad, the State Duma in the third and final reading of a new law took over the non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

If NGO workers not disclose assistance from abroad, they must reckon with money or even imprisonment. Human rights activists are concerned that they are marginalized and persecuted as spies. The EU and the U.S. have criticized the law.

All protest is under threat

According to the official representation, the law serves to prevent foreign countries from taking on the internal politics of Russia's influence. According to observers, the law is about the election observer organization Golos, the irregularities in the recent elections in Russia had denounced, and the anti-corruption organization Transparency International. Likely to be affected but also environmental organizations and activists campaigning for human rights and civil liberties.

Fundamental rights are restricted

But that's not all: In addition to the so-called "agent-law" has the nod from Putin's party "United Russia" dominated parliament three more laws that restrict the fundamental freedoms essential.

In the future, are clear demonstrations of compliance with drastic penalties than before - for individuals that are up to 300,000 rubbles (about 7500 €). When violations are also obstructing the road or entering of green spaces. The law is contributing to security and order, say proponents. In the view of civil rights activists, it is rather difficult for opposition rallies.

Even the notion of defamation in the Penal Code is again in the future, from which he had less than a year ago has been deleted. For libel, the law provides penalties of up to 500,000 rubbles (12,500 Euros) in front instead of a maximum of 3,000 rubbles. Journalists fear a muzzle. Moreover, the opposition should be silenced, my critics. Any way could end up because of criticism of the Kremlin United Russia party in court.
And finally, the authorities can block, with reference to the protection of children without a court decision websites. Opponents of the controversial law are to see the danger of abuse and the Internet censorship in the greatest country on earth. The law should limit the protest movement mobilized through the Internet. Officially content with child pornography, glorification of drug use and calls for suicide are listed as reasons for revocation.

Monday, 30 July 2012

"How China in the 80s": Dilapidated infrastructure cripples the U.S.

Three hours sitting World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin on the train, even if he is the fastest connection for the connection between Washington to New York chooses. In the emerging economy of China , the birthplace Lin, a high speed train takes only half the time for the 360 kilometre route, he calculates. It is a good example of the poor state of U.S. infrastructure. Improvement is hardly in sight. Falling tax revenues and political gridlock even more endanger the already ailing status quo.

Lin lives in the vicinity of Washington. Around the U.S. capital, power outages are common. This is a fatal combination of vulnerable above-ground power lines and trees along the routes. "Every time when a strong wind blowing, we have a power outage," says the long-suffering Lin. "It reminds me of China in the 1980s." In a report to the international competitiveness of the "World Economic" forum proves the U.S. infrastructure is only ranked 24th of 142, behind Malaysia. Germany comes in 10th place

Spending on infrastructure, has a drop in decades - to about 2.4 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in 2007, as the budget authority of the U.S. Congress tells. More recent figures are not there. European governments spend, on average about 5 percent. This leads to these devastating effects:

- One third of all main roads are in poor condition. 36 percent of all urban highways are congested as ever. Main problems are potholes and cracks in the asphalt.

- The railway is regarded as unreliable. Train passengers arrive on time in Europe at up to 90 percent of trips in the United States at 77 percent. There are no high-speed rail networks. The express train "Acela Express" runs between Washington and Boston because of the bad tracks on average 115 kilometres per hour.

- Many of the often outdated airports are congested, delays are commonplace. Dating back to the 1950s, air traffic control system should be replaced with more efficient models, according to expert opinion.

- More than a quarter of the 600,000 bridges no longer meet the optimal standard of safety, even as more than 160,000 are in danger of collapse. 13 people died in the collapse of an aging highway bridge in Minneapolis in 2007.

- The average age of more than 85,000 dams in the United States is 51 years. Over 4,000 of these have serious security flaws. The State of Texas is as a mere seven engineers to monitor its more than 7,400 dams.

- The above-ground cables are extremely vulnerable. Damaged as a falling power line road, go right out the lights in the whole district. Because this happens with almost every storm, power stations advise citizens to purchase generators. As the 2003 hurricane "Isabel" struck the east coast of the United States, some 45 million Americans sat in the dark.

But neither President Obama nor his Republican challenger Mitt Romney has the infrastructure crisis as an election issue. The White House had indeed called in his budget proposal for 2012 infrastructure issues as a "crucial" for growth and competitiveness of the country, but to the Obama campaign site, nothing is on. There simply is no money. Mitt Romney, however, also promotes the privatization of the rail company Amtrak, with the yearly subsidies of 1.6 billion dollars (1.25 billion Euros) will be kept going.

Not even five cents per litre tax
 The national debt and economic crisis overshadow the infrastructure debate. The debts amount to more than 100 percent of GDP, since 2007, the annual deficits greater than one trillion dollars. Infrastructure improvements will be financed partly through a fuel tax - currently it is 4.86 cents per litre of gasoline and 6.45 cents for diesel. It takes about 32 billion dollars per year, but fall since the onset of the economic crisis revenue. An increase is seen as politically difficult to implement.
Already in 2008, estimated a specially appointed Congress Commission that about 255 billion dollars a year are necessary to own the transportation infrastructure in the next 50 years, maintain and improve - the expenditure in that year, less than half were of them, tend to fall.

UN call for the protection of civilians during fighting in Syria

NEW YORK (AP) - The UN and the Syrian parties are called upon to protect civilians in their battles. Given the heavy fighting in cities such as Aleppo and Damascus demanded the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos, with open access for aid agencies in the combat zones. According to their estimates have fled in recent days alone 200 000 people from the embattled city of Aleppo economy. No one knows that how many civilians are trapped in the fighting.

U.S. Dollar: facts and trivia

The U.S. dollar is the national currency of the United States of America (USA) and also an accepted currency in many places.

The exchange rate EUR / USD is the current ratio of euro to U.S. dollar, expressed in U.S. dollars at.

The U.S. dollar is seen as a world reserve currency. For it is the world's dominant trade and reserve currency. Commodity prices are largely priced in U.S. dollars, indicating the importance of this currency for other nations. Increases the dollar more expensive, the raw materials for other currencies. How economies respond sensitively to shows, especially the oil price.

Until 1971 there was for the dollars of so-called gold standard, ie you could convert U.S. dollars for gold at any time in a certain ratio. Sun corresponded to 1933 35 U.S. dollars the value of one troy ounce of gold. Due to the ever-growing money supply could not be a gold cover were sustained, so the U.S. dollar has long been an unmet currency.

With the introduction of the euro, the U.S. dollar has given in his role as a world reserve currency strong competition. The euro, the common currency, the euro-zone, official and common currency of 23 nations. If you compare the historic high of $ 0.8252 per dollar from € (October 2000) with the price levels since the Lehman crisis, competition from the euro clearly. The dollar decline is correlated with the low interest rate policy of the Fed, the Federal Reserve.

Fact and trivia of the U.S. dollar is a floating exchange rate system to reason, so that neither the Fed nor the European Central Bank may take an active influence on the share price.

Tuesday, 17 July 2012

EU expects record unemployment in Europe

In its economic forecast is the EU Commission for the euro-zone to a gloomy outlook. The double-digit unemployment and France and Spain come short of the Maastricht criteria.

The unemployment rate in the euro-zone is a European Commission forecast to keep rising to a record high of 11.0 percent. "It is expected that unemployment remains high," the agency announced in Brussels in presenting its spring forecasts for economic development with the EU.

Thus, unemployment in the 17 euro area countries on average achieved this year and next year respectively to the record level of 11.0 percent. Previously, the maximum value is 10.9 percent, that reached in March.
For the entire European Union, the Commission expects this year and into next year, an unemployment rate of 10.3 percent on average in each case. In March, the rate for the EU as a whole was 10.2 percent. This is already the highest value that has been extended since the beginning of 2007 to the European Union to 27 Member States.

Euro-zone is located in "mild recession"
After the Euro-zone Brussels and the entire EU is now in a "mild recession". "The economic activity in the EU in the last quarter of 2011 and shrunk, according to estimates in the first quarter of 2012," says the economic outlook presented by the EU Commission.
For the full year, experts predict a zero growth for all 27 EU countries and a decline of 0.3 percent for the 17 euro countries.

Spain and France miss deficit target
Spain and France will miss a forecast of the European Commission, which aims to reduce their budget deficits. Spain is in this and next year well above the record highs set for the new debt, as the authorities in Brussels predicted. France will exceed the target this year, thus slightly in the coming year as well.