Friday, 3 August 2012

Gold is ripe for the outbreak

The gold price has overcome the recent small dizzy spell and the level of $ 1,600 quickly recaptured. Now shake the downward trend, a breakout would probably take a hefty price to push themselves.

At first glance this may seem surprising, because the dollar is currently very strong and the recession in Europe provides pressure on inflation - both are really bad for the price of gold .

But the investor the right to counter the potential for central banks have in mind. In particular, the ECB knows that Italy and Spain, no further worsening of the crisis can take longer. If both countries at the same time be ripe for the European rescue package, this would be overburdened. Therefore, the ECB - at least the most recent statements are to be interpreted - intervene on short or long, no matter what the cost.

If let go, but the central banks all the rules in order to extricate the U.S. from their financial distress, then it is not a commitment to consult with gold badly.

Climate manipulation would have significant adverse effects

The technical human intervention in the climate system would have serious consequences
That would be great, if the climate will fail politically, and finally, the Earth is heating up, no brakes, we solve the problem simply technical. "Geo engineering" refers to a technical intervention in the climate system - for example, when particles in the air blow in order to reduce the sunlight. This would have serious consequences, however, as a European research team has now been found.

Geo-engineering would be Europe and other regions of the earth will bring more droughts.

Huge mirrors absorb light

Another option in addition to the enrichment of the atmosphere with particulate matter would be to post huge mirrors in Earth orbit. As a result of the measures, the results of the research, although the temperatures would drop back to normal - but at the same time would significantly decrease the rainfall on Earth.

That would mean that in Europe and North America about 15 percent drier than would be before the start of human-induced climate change. Will in the Amazon rain as much as 20 percent, the researchers report in the journal "Earth System Dynamics".

Remove greenhouse gases

About geo-engineering should either remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or the solar radiation is reduced to the surface. Both should help to slow down climate change and halt global warming.

"Such measures have been proposed as a temporary solution for the case that climate change efforts fail or fail, the consequences of global warming more severe than expected". But the side effects of such interventions in the global climate system have been explored only in part.

Climate would be different

"The main message of our experiment is that the generated by geo-engineering climate is different than any pre-existing natural". One could, the climate such measures do not simply turn back to a previous state.

Even if the temperature gets back to lower levels, there are crucial differences. "Geo-engineering can not therefore be considered a substitute for a climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions," the researchers conclude.

Four climate models

The scientists studied using four climate models, such as the Earth's climate responds to measures to reduce the sunlight. In their scenario, scientists believe that the atmosphere is four times as much carbon dioxide (CO2) still contains the beginning of industrialization - then there were around 280 ppm (parts per million, parts per million).

"Such a quadruple is at the upper end of the forecast breadth, but is still within the range of what would be the end of the 21st century possible," says Max Planck meteorologist Schmidt. To simulate a geo-engineering measure, the researchers then lowered the sunlight in their models to such an extent that the extra CO2 caused by the greenhouse effect has been compensated.

Much less precipitation

The outcome measure, the researchers compared the simulated climate of the earth before the Industrial Revolution. In all four models had manipulated the climate was drier than in the same scenario, the researchers report. The rainfall amounts were lower by an average of 4.8 percent worldwide.

Particularly strongly decreased while the rainfall over North America, the northern part of Eurasia and South America. In the Amazon, it was dry as much as 20 percent. The average global temperature was, however, similar as in the comparative scenario, however, cooled the tropics are somewhat stronger than the polar regions.

Thursday, 2 August 2012

Killer germs spread in the Baltic Sea

Due to the climate change propagate disease-causing bacteria in the Baltic Sea . Already infected with warm summers and more people with Vibrio vulnificus, a pathogen of wound infections, diarrhoea and blood poisoning, reports an international team of researchers in the journal "Nature Climate Change." Even the closely related cholera pathogen Vibrio cholerae is on the rise. Cause of the spread of the bacteria is the sea water becoming warmer.

For every degree that warm it in the Baltic Sea in the future, will increase the number of cases nearly doubled. Affected by this increase in risk of infection are especially densely populated central and southern coasts of the Baltic Sea, the scientists warn. Apart from Denmark and southern Sweden is offered, including Germany and Poland.

Life-threatening fever and blood poisoning

"This is one of the first evidence that climate change can penetrate Vibrio pathogens in temperate regions," Craig Baker-Austin signed by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science in Weymouth and his British colleagues. This shows that the man-made warming begin to change the distribution of infectious diseases.

In addition to the cholera pathogen Vibrio cholerae in warm sea water is found mainly the bacterium Vibrio vulnificus. It causes diarrhea in healthy people, vomiting and stomachache. Get it on wounds or the bloodstream, the immune system of patients weakened, it can also trigger life-threatening fever and blood poisoning.

Baltic Sea heats up in record time

The bacteria of the Vibrio group usually prefer water of at least 15 degrees Celsius and low salinities. For a long time it was too cold in many parts of the Baltic Sea, so that the pathogens could not survive in the long run. Due to climate change, this has changed. "Between 1982 and 2007, water temperatures in the Baltic Sea has risen by 1.35 degrees Celsius - that's seven times more than the global average," say the researchers. The Baltic Sea is thus the fastest warming marine ecosystem in general.

The warmer water has the expectant Baltic pathogens better and better living conditions. They can multiply quickly, and their pathogenic effect on the increase, as the researchers report. During the extremely hot summer of 1994, 2003 and 2006 it was on the Baltic coast already been numerous reports of infected wounds and possibly even cases of cholera. In 2006 alone, 67 people infected with bathing or water sports with Vibrio pathogens, some died.

30 million people are directly threatened

By the year 2050 will increase the number of Vibrio infections clearly if the warming of the Baltic Sea would progress further, the researchers say. Each degree water temperature increases the more infections the number of 1.93-fold. Disease cases are then no longer be expected only in extremely hot summers. In addition, the risk area will continue to spread northward. Then could also metropolitan areas such as Stockholm and St. Petersburg may be jeopardized. "More than 30 million people live less than 50 kilometres from the Baltic Sea,". These people carry an increasing risk of becoming infected through open wounds, contaminated seafood, but also swallowed water with the vibrio bacteria.

For their study, the researchers analyzed the recent cases of infection by water-living bacteria in the Baltic region. On the basis of current climate predictions, they also determined, as is the risk of infection to develop by 2050.

Rivers rinse more water into the Arctic sea

The drainage of the Great Russian Rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena has increased as a result of global warming. The annual amount that pours into the Arctic Ocean lies, today, with about 1700 cubic kilometres per year higher by about ten percent more than 60 years ago.

"It does not take too dramatic, but it is a long-term trend exists,". The results are in the journal "Nature Climate Change" published.

Consequence of the air heating

The research had shown a correlation between the increase of the water in the rivers and the large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, said a professor of physical oceanography. One factor is the heating of the air. This could carry more water and lead to greater amounts of precipitation.

Also playing the past few years observed shift of the Iceland-lows to the east a role. In addition, more frequent in Europe will be the dominant zone flow replaced (along the latitude) by a meridional flow (along the longitudes). "That means that more moisture is transported into the influence of these rivers,".

The results fit well with the data according to the current knowledge of climate change. The trend towards greater freshwater runoff in the investigated area is expected to continue with the progress of global warming continues.

In the long term impact on European climate

The current development is uncertain, however, there are enormous fluctuations from year to year. The previous increase in the outflow had no greater impact on the Arctic Ocean. Basically, could have very large amounts of fresh water, but the influence on North Atlantic circulation, which influences the climate in Europe significantly.

The waning confidence in capitalism


Care around the globe, citizens of the state are its economy , says a new global survey of the prestigious Pew Research Centre in Washington. Of 26,000 respondents in 21 states are only about one in four (27 percent), with the economy Slagelse to be satisfied in his homeland.

Only four nations are of shear, especially China (83 percent satisfied) and Germany (73). Also in Brazil (65 percent) and Turkey (57) Optimism prevails.

Crisis of capitalism model

Compared to a similar Pew survey in 2008 - ie before the onset of the global financial crisis - the loss of confidence is striking. This also leads to a crisis of capitalism model. Eleven of the 21 countries surveyed believe at most half of the respondents, free market economy would lead to greater general prosperity.

Is particularly noticeable loss of confidence in nations that are of the euro crisis severely affected - such as Italy (-23 percent) and Spain (minus 20). There is also support for the proposition could be achieved through hard work, more wealth has fallen significantly.

Pessimism in the U.S., Europe and Japan

Thus, a sharp contrast between the results of the more optimistic mood in emerging countries like China, Brazil, India and Turkey - and a pessimistic attitude in the U.S., Europe or Japan. Less than a third of Americans are to give their economies if it were currently well. In Europe this figure is on average only 16 percent - in Japan, it has even fallen to seven percent.

Only about one in ten Europeans and Japanese have also believe that his descendants would be easy to achieve greater prosperity and better earnings. By comparison, 57 percent of Chinese are convinced that their children will succeed in social advancement without problems.

Little faith in governments

Frustrated citizens around the world lose faith in the crisis to their governments: In 16 of the 21 participating States at the Pew study makes the majority of the respondents their politicians largely responsible for the current economic malaise.

NGOs are regarded by Russia as spies

Who in Russia for political work receives money from Germany and other countries, must now be officially recognized as a "foreign agent". Despite all the criticism from abroad, the State Duma in the third and final reading of a new law took over the non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

If NGO workers not disclose assistance from abroad, they must reckon with money or even imprisonment. Human rights activists are concerned that they are marginalized and persecuted as spies. The EU and the U.S. have criticized the law.

All protest is under threat

According to the official representation, the law serves to prevent foreign countries from taking on the internal politics of Russia's influence. According to observers, the law is about the election observer organization Golos, the irregularities in the recent elections in Russia had denounced, and the anti-corruption organization Transparency International. Likely to be affected but also environmental organizations and activists campaigning for human rights and civil liberties.

Fundamental rights are restricted

But that's not all: In addition to the so-called "agent-law" has the nod from Putin's party "United Russia" dominated parliament three more laws that restrict the fundamental freedoms essential.

In the future, are clear demonstrations of compliance with drastic penalties than before - for individuals that are up to 300,000 rubbles (about 7500 €). When violations are also obstructing the road or entering of green spaces. The law is contributing to security and order, say proponents. In the view of civil rights activists, it is rather difficult for opposition rallies.

Even the notion of defamation in the Penal Code is again in the future, from which he had less than a year ago has been deleted. For libel, the law provides penalties of up to 500,000 rubbles (12,500 Euros) in front instead of a maximum of 3,000 rubbles. Journalists fear a muzzle. Moreover, the opposition should be silenced, my critics. Any way could end up because of criticism of the Kremlin United Russia party in court.
And finally, the authorities can block, with reference to the protection of children without a court decision websites. Opponents of the controversial law are to see the danger of abuse and the Internet censorship in the greatest country on earth. The law should limit the protest movement mobilized through the Internet. Officially content with child pornography, glorification of drug use and calls for suicide are listed as reasons for revocation.